Why India Must Be Concerned about China's Hydropower Plants

China has accelerated construction of five mega hydropower plants on the Yarlung Tsangpo river. The project includes new roads, tunnels and railway links that could strengthen infrastructure and military logistics near India.

The project poses significant environmental, seismic and downstream risks for Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.

Chinese research has acknowledged geological instability around the dam site, including landslide and fault-line concerns.

 

The five mega hydropower plants (HPPs) on the Yarlung Tsangpo river are in the news again. For the past 25 years, I have followed the issue (which has greatly evolved over the years) and have often written on the subject.

What is intriguing today: Why is the Government of India, and in particular the ministry of external affairs keeping quiet despite the fast pace of development on the ground. It is difficult to grasp the oficial reasoning.

It reminds me of one of the first articles I wrote for Rediff in 2003 on the suject: 'Prime Minister Vajpayee went to China in June [2003]. Everyone applauded; Nehru's dream, true Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai would finally manifest itself they felt. [Then] the prime minister went to Bali this month. 

Again, the MEA was jubilant; Foreign Secretary Sibal proudly announced that China had deleted Sikkim from the list of independent states. Asked if India had raised the Chinese intrusion into Arunachal Pradesh with the Chinese leadership in Bali, Sibal replied in the negative.'

Today, 23 years later, we hear about a thaw with Beijing, but nothing about the largest environmental and seismic threat to India.

Ongoing Chinese activities in the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo show how how fast the situation is accelerating on the ground.

According to the Xinhua news agency, on July 19, 2025, the opening ceremony for the mega project (on the lower reaches of the river which will become the Siang and Brahmaputra in India), was held.

Li Qiang, a member of the standing committee of the politbureau of the Chinese Communist party's central committee and the premier (prime minister) of the state council, attended the opening ceremony; he offially announced that the project, located near Pai township, had started.

Wu Zhenglong, currently a state councilor and the secretary-general of the state council (cabinet), presided over the opening ceremony.

The release said: 'At the dam site ...Li Qiang looked at the construction equipment, drilling cores, etc, listened to the work reports on the development of hydropower projects, scientific and technological research.'

It was mentioned that the project will mainly use tunneling for the water diversion, and will build a cascade of five power stations, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan.

The project is located at the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo river. The estimated cost is $167.8 billion for a planned installed capacity of 60 to 70 gigawatts, generating about 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually.

Oficially, it aims at boosting China's renewable energy output and regional economic growth and promotes carbon reduction targets by cutting millions of tons of emissions.

The project will primarily deliver electricity to mainland China, while taking into account the local needs of Tibet. The evacuation (transmission) of power will certainly remain a major technical problem, though China has progressed a lot in this domain.

The route of the diversion (to the 5 HPPs) will run south of the Doshung-la tunnel and the G219 (between Pai and Metok or Medog); this should greatly faciltate the construction and it will end up near Baibeng/Drepung, close to the Indian border (the Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh).

Let us remember that the G219, earlier known as 'the Aksai Chin road', is the continuation of the infamous route cutting through Indian territrory in Ladakh.

Li Qiang listened in detail to the actions taken for the protection of the wetland ecological environment. This will be one of major difficulties and could bring devastation to the area as well as to Arunachal Pradesh and Assam downstream. Apparently, Li also listened to reports on the scientific and technological research undertaken and resettlement of immigrants.

Is China planning to bring thousands of Chinese Han on the Indian border? Probably.

The first road to Metok Dzong (County) was opened in October 2013; it passed via the Galong-la tunnel located on the G559 highway leading to Metok. It runs at an altitude of about 3,750 metres and spans roughly 3,310 metres in length.

In 2013, the opening of the tunnel ended Metok's isolation, famously known as China's last county without a road access.

At that time, China Tibet Online published a photofeature of the famous road in winter. The article says: 'The 117-km highway, which cost 155 million US dollars, links Zhamog [or Chabmog in Tibetan, suburbs of Bome] Township, the county seat of Bome, and Metok in Nyingchi Prefecture in southeastern Tibet. With the opening of the road, people in Metok have higher expectations for their future.'

One could add, the People's Liberation Army too.

The second road via the Doshong La tunnel was opened in 2021. It is a major Chinese infrastructure development in Tibet connecting Pai township in Nyingchi to Metok, featuring a 4.8-kilometre tunnel through the Doshong La mountain (and another shorter one, the Lobang tunnel).

This strategic route with a total length of around 67 kilometres significantly shortens travel time and distance in the sensitive Himalayan border region.

The third road, south of the G219 will be opened soon.

Both the second road (via the Doshung-la tunnel) and the third one (presently under completion), are dedicated to the construction of the five HPPs and not opened to civilian traffic.

On July 16, 2026, China Daily published an article, Highway Drives Metog's Economic Engine. The propaganda article takes the case of one Monpa lady called Kelsang Dekyi who when she traveled for the first time through the Galong-la [tunnel], 'did not just see light at the end of the tunnel, but a brighter future for her people'.

The 48-year-old Dekyi explains: 'Zigzagging old roads, which are abandoned, were the only means of getting in and out of Metog. All people, young and old, had to make the dangerous journey that took days on foot in the old days.' Kelsang Dekyi adds: 'in Metog, frequent natural disasters, such as avalanches, landslides and mudslides, often blocked the old roads to the county.'

This is the segment linking into the already-operating Lhasa-Nyingchi line, as part of the 1,011 km Ya'an-Nyingchi section of the Sichuan-Lhasa railway line; the segment between Nyingchi and Bome with a length of 151 kimometers should be opened soon.

Incidentally, the bridge-tunnel ratio for the Ya'an-Nyingchi railway route will be about 94.8%, comprising 838 kilometers of tunnels and 120 kilometers of bridges across the full 1,011 km.

The new railway line is a serious development as it will help faster PLA troops deployment in case of conflict with India; it will also accelerate the HPPs project by allowing large quantity of material/equipment (and people) to be brought to Bome and later to Metok.

Recently, an article in The South China Morning Post, quoting a published Chinese research paper, mentioned, 'an active fault line threatens world's biggest hydropower project. ...New analysis brings call for slope reinforcement for massive mega-dam project in Tibet to mitigate risks of landslides and collapses.'

This is not new, the seismicity of the area is a well-known fact; over the last decades, several research articles came to similar conclusions, but usually China likes to forget this inconvenient truth.

It is also worth noting that this area, known as Pemakoe, is one of the holiest places in Tibet. It is a Beyul or Hidden Valley, a place where one takes refuge when the world is going through a deep crisis. It is also the abode of Vajra Varahi (Dorjee Phagmo for the Tibetans), the protector of this sacred realm and the gorges of Yarlung Tsangpo.

Additionally, it is one of the most seismic regions of the planet.

Very few people lived in Pemakoe in the past; most of them were looking for the Paradise on Earth.

Everything changed on August 15, 1950; on that day, an earthquake of a magnitude of 8.6 on the Richter Scale, the most powerful of the 20th century, struck Southern Tibet, including Pemakoe.

A young and highly-realised Lama, Kunsang Dechen Lingpa witnessed the 1950 earthquake; in his memoirs, he wrote: 'As I was starting my afternoon meditation, I felt the earth and my little meditation house shaking intensely. I saw that the tops of my house pillars and the two roof beams were starting to separate. ...As we walked away from the retreat house the foundations collapsed.

'Afterwards, the whole region, the entire mountainside had eroded and the land from mountain to river was destroyed. All the trees were uprooted and many animals and birds had been killed.'

The Rinpoche was in retreat in Pemakoe, the same area where Beijing has started to build five mega hydro structures.

In the research paper quoted by the The South China Morning Post, geologists from the Chengdu University of Technology, urged the builders to strengthen slope stability and implement retaining protections to mitigate the risk of landslides and collapses.

The fact that the The South China Morning Post article was given a lot of publicity probably means that many in China do not agree with the mega project, which can only result one day in devastation in Pemakoe ...and India downstream.

It is very unfortunate that China has decided to proceed with the controversial HPPs (despite the apparent opposition of many scientists in China), but of course, it involves a lot of money and today money is the master of New China.

But a question remains: Why is Delhi so silent about the above development?